Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Rally Time



Rally Time 

free-money

There was quite a rally in the markets today.  The Dow closed up over 300-points, with all the other indices up an equivalent percentage. The news must have been great so without further ado, let’s have a look. 
 
The first economic data that hit the tape was the New Home Sales report and it, ahh, wasn’t good. It stunk.  Bloomberg said the following “Bad news is building out of the housing sector. Last week's report on existing home sales showed surprising contraction as does today's report on new home sales where the annual sales rate fell to 298,000 units, down 0.7 percent in the month. The report includes significant downward revisions of 12,000 to June, now at 300,000, and of 6,000 to May, now at 315,000. Prices of existing homes contracted in July as they did for the median price on new homes, down a steep 6.3 percent in the month to $222,000.
 
“The outlook for the new home market and for home builders remains very difficult. Low interest rates may be a big plus but are being more than offset by heavy supply of low priced existing homes, by appraisal uncertainties, and by continuing tightness in the credit market.”
 
Well THAT report didn’t go well.  Let’s have a look at The Richmond Fed data.  
 
In the Richmond Fed’s report we read “In August, the seasonally adjusted composite index of manufacturing activity — our broadest measure of manufacturing — declined nine points to -10 from July's reading of -1. Among the index's components, shipments lost sixteen points to -17, and new orders dropped six points to finish at -11, while the jobs index inched down three points to 1.
 
“Other indicators also suggested additional softening. The index for capacity utilization declined eight points to -14 and the backlogs of orders fell seven points to end at -25. Additionally, the delivery times index moved down twelve points to end at -4, while our gauges for inventories were virtually unchanged in August. The finished goods inventory index held steady at 17 in August, while the raw materials inventories index added one point to finish at 19.”
 
Since the incompetent Fraud Street economists missed both reports by a wide margin, with the latter report being 100% worse than expected and the worst data since 2009, one would expect a negative reaction in equities.  Ohhh, but this is Fraud Street, not the Wall Street hype of supply and demand that you have been told about over the decades.
 
Apparently the news was so bad that the hyenas of Fraud Street went into a feeding frenzy – eating as many short sellers as the pack could tear apart.  And why would the nasty hyenas do such a thing?  The answer lies with Ben S. Bernanke and the J-Hole symposium of the central banking mafia.  
 
“What’s not to like in these reports?” says the banking mafia.  “This now cinches the response we want from our puppet Bernanke: more free money for us via QE3.”
 
Boo-YA, baby!  More horrific economic data and the markets take off like a rocket shot.
 
Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.”
 
Behold the age of infinite moral hazard! On April 2nd, 2009 CONgress forced FASB to suspend rule 157 in favor of deceitful accounting for the TBTF banksters.
 

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

ZERO

zero

 
ZIRP is “zero interest rate policy” and what Ben Bernanke announced today was that the banking mafia will enjoy at least two more years of free money.  But I don’t believe that; I deem today’s FOMC statement to mean ZIRP is here forever.  Said another way, we are following the path of Japan.  The country is in such a mess that the Fed’s prior TRILLIONS of “liquidity” has done absolutely nothing – but they’ll keep doing it anyway.
 
When the FOMC statement was released there was the usual back and forth trade; however, the market did not like the lack of a direct QE3 comment - initially.  The S&P was slammed to a new daily low but didn’t stay there for long.
 
Once the low was in, Goldman Sachs gave its trading desk and all who listen to it the “buy signal” it wanted.  In a note to clients Goldman said…
 
The committee adopted an even easier policy stance than expected. First, the committee now anticipates that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate "at least through mid-2013" instead of "for an extended period." Although some form of strengthening of the guidance language was expected and the new guidance remains conditional on the economic outlook, we see this step as a dovish surprise. Three members--Fisher, Kocherlakota and Plosser--dissented from this decision, the largest number of dissents since November 1992.
 
Moreover, the committee effectively signaled an easing bias saying that it discussed "the range of policy tools necessary to promote a stronger economic recovery" and that it "is prepared to employ these tools as appropriate." In our view, this leaves open the possibility of further asset purchases ("QE3") should the economic outlook deteriorate further from here.
 
When this was released, the S&P was roughly at 1107.00 and immediately went up.  By the close the S&P exploded an additional 69.00-points!
 
Although the Fed is constantly saying the economy is on the mend (read: lying), it apparently sucks so badly that we need ZIRP for at least two more years.  Additionally, you will find these uplifting comments in the FOMC release…
  • “moderated” (the economy)
  • “flattened out” (spending)
  • “considerably lower” (growth)
  • “deterioration” (economic indicators)
  • “downside risk” (to the future)
  • THREE DISSENTERS – first time since 1992

 
No but really, it’s all good!
 
Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.”
 
Behold the age of infinite moral hazard! On April 2nd, 2009 CONgress forced FASB to suspend rule 157 in favor of deceitful accounting for the TBTF banksters.
 
   

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Liquidation



Liquidation

volcano

 
Given the US debt downgrade late Friday night, a Monday sell-off wasn’t terribly surprising.  The mass liquidation by the close, however, was surprising. 
 
As I write this, the indices are down sharply on Globex because of global domino effect and more downgrades.  After Monday’s close the expected downgrades of muni-debt hit the tape.
 
From Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-07/muni-market-prepares-for-loss-of-aaa-ratings-as-s-p-downgrades-u-s-credit.html
 
Standard & Poor’s cut the AAA ratings of thousands of municipal bonds tied to the federal government, including housing securities and debt backed by leases, following its Aug. 5 downgrade of the U.S.
 
The rating company assigned AA+ scores to securities in the $2.9 trillion municipal bond market including school- construction bonds in Irving, Texas; debt backed by a federal lease in Miami; and a bond series for multifamily housing in Oceanside, California. Olayinka Fadahunsi, an S&P spokesman, said he couldn’t provide a dollar figure on the affected debt.
 
S&P also cut ratings on securities backed by Fannie Mae andFreddie Mac, prerefunded issues and munis repaid by using federal assets, also known as defeased or escrow bonds. No state general-obligation ratings were affected.
 
Chris Mier, a managing director at Loop Capital Markets LLC inChicago who follows the municipal bond market, said the downgrades made sense, given the federal rating cut.
 
“In order to keep the system logical and coherent, there are going to be a lot of downgrades,” Mier said in a conference call with reporters and clients.
 
Matt Fabian, a managing director of Concord, Massachusetts- based Municipal Market Advisors, a financial research company, said in a telephone interview that he expected “hundreds and hundreds of municipal downgrades,” which may hurt investor confidence.
 
“Treasuries may be able to shake off a real impact from the downgrade,” he said. “Munis, I’m less sure about.”
 
In an effort to calm the markets, president Obama held a news conference today…and continued to play the Blame Game.  Apparently the market was expecting him to act like a leader; a statesman; a president.  Instead he acted like a typical politician and the market tanked further.  Moreover, as the market continues to tank on Globex, he is pressing the flesh at a $15,000 per plate fund raiser and is surely telling the crowd that without his short speech today “the market would have been 300 points lower. So I saved or created 300 points today.”
 
The FOMC meets Tuesday with a statement at 2:15pm EST. Will Bernanke announce QE3?
 
 
Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.”
 
Behold the age of infinite moral hazard! On April 2nd, 2009 CONgress forced FASB to suspend rule 157 in favor of deceitful accounting for the TBTF banksters.

Thursday, August 4, 2011

Technical Data

Technical Data

support_level

 
The market has been hammered lower eight straight days, until today.  If Wednesday had closed with even a miniscule loss it would have matched the worst consecutive losing streak since 1978.  With that in mind, Fraud Street bought the dip with a vengeance and thus avoided all of the bad press and the sure-to-follow Jimmy Carter “malaise” comparisons.  
 
Is this a support level?  Although one never knows for sure and there is a great deal of news coming out soon (read: Italian banking crisis and Fri Jobs data) we may get some support Thursday.  A major level of technical support that I mentioned on CNBC today was 1240.00 in the S&P.  While the market traded through it, it eventually held and led to a strong reversal with a positive close. Moreover, ES (mini) volume was 52% higher than the recent average and closed with net aggressive buyers over sellers…even if it was only +0.22%.  
 
If you wanted good news, that’s about all I’ve got and I don’t know how long a technical bounce will last.  If it can hold together for more than a few hours and the market ignores the sure-to-be bad Jobs Report on Friday, it just may pop back to the 1295.00 / 1300.00 levels.  A rally beyond there seems unlikely for the following reasons; fundamental economic news is awful, European banking crisis will soon be headline risk again, the S&P broke all of its higher support levels, the major indices have all closed below their respective 200-day MAs, and the S&P futures chart has finally broken the MAJOR channel going back to The Bernank’s intervention policies that began in 2009 to rig the market.  Of course, this last point will be more influential if it has a weekly close under said channel.
 
Speaking of The Ben Bernank, don’t worry about the markets too much, he’s your ally: he does not believe in free markets and will soon undertake QE 3 to force the markets higher.
 
Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.”
 
Behold the age of infinite moral hazard! On April 2nd, 2009 CONgress forced FASB to suspend rule 157 in favor of deceitful accounting for the TBTF banksters.